From iPhone Air to iPhone XX: Apple is Restructuring the iPhone Product Line for the Third Time
The prevailing narrative used to be that the iPhone Air was a technical validation for a foldable iPhone. Now, it seems more like a proof-of-concept for the iPhone XX (20).
With the iPhone 17 Pro generation, Apple has separated the two mutually exclusive attributes of high performance and luxurious feel. One is carried by the 17 Pro, allowing the iPhone Pro series to shed constraints and truly become a Pro device. The other is temporarily carried by the iPhone Air, and may later be absorbed by the 20th-anniversary model. Therefore, Pro models starting from the 17 Pro will become increasingly thick and heavy, moving irrevocably towards designs focused on performance release and specializing in mobile professional imaging. Recent supply chain leaks about a thicker and heavier iPhone 18 Pro corroborate this.
This phenomenon is also documented in the history of MacBook development. Previous MacBook Pro models always aimed for both thinness and performance, which resulted in a wedge-shaped body that only appeared thin but wasn’t truly so, and poor performance with a single heat pipe struggling to cool an i9. MacBook Pro models after the M-chip era are different; while chip power efficiency has vastly improved, the redesigned internal space with a squarer body also brought a better cooling system.
Behind this is essentially the same product problem: when performance, heat dissipation, battery life, imaging, and thinness/premium feel all compete for limited internal space, it becomes increasingly difficult for a single device to excel in all directions simultaneously. MacBook ultimately used the Air and Pro product lines to carry thinness and professional performance, respectively, and the iPhone now seems to be following a similar path. The significance of the Air might not just be to validate specific engineering technologies like thin batteries or motherboard stacking, but rather to test whether Apple can allow a high-end iPhone to actively forgo some traditional “all-round” capabilities, and instead make a particular experience sufficiently distinct.
In the history of iPhone development, product line diversification has already occurred twice. The first was diversification by size (6 and 6 Plus), and the second was diversification by tier (X/Pro flagship models and XR/numbered standard models). The combined result of these two was Pro/Max and mini/standard/Plus.
Ten years after the X, the possibility of a third product line diversification is not small. The Air, which breaks from the numerical sequence, and foldable phones also indicate that Apple is restructuring its product lines. The functional development of smartphones has made it difficult for a single flagship product line to carry all high-end features.
The first two diversifications essentially addressed “how big an iPhone do users need?” and “what tier of iPhone do users need?”. If a third diversification truly happens, it might no longer address size or price tiers, but rather what different products aim to achieve. Once thinness, professional imaging, ultimate performance, foldable form factors, and industrial design begin to become independent product goals, the original linear product system, which simply added features from the standard model up to the Pro Max, will naturally find it increasingly difficult to accommodate these conflicting demands.
Therefore, in an era where premium feel and performance cannot both be maximized, a mainstream flagship that needs to embody luxurious aesthetics cannot simultaneously carry high-performance attributes. The third diversification might be the solution to this problem.
This is also why I don’t quite agree with the judgment that “the 20th-anniversary model has two sizes, therefore it’s a Pro and a Pro Max.” Supply chain leaks can prove that Apple is testing two sizes, but they cannot further prove which product line Apple will ultimately assign these two sizes to; the latter part is already a speculation about product definition. In the past, the standard model also saw size differentiation in the mini and Plus directions, and two sizes themselves have never been an exclusive feature of the Pro series. Moreover, before the official release of the Air, the media generally referred to it as “iPhone 17 Air” following past naming conventions, but Apple ultimately let it jump out of the numerical sequence. The supply chain can more easily see “what Apple is building,” but why Apple is building this product and what role it will ultimately play in the overall product matrix is another layer of the problem.
Based on the above analysis, I boldly predict the five iPhone product lines after the restructuring next year:
Flagship
iPhone XX/iPhone XX Max? iPhone 20 Ultra/iPhone 20 Ultra Max?
A flagship with an all-glass visual design, available in two sizes (large and small), dual-sided quad-curved glass, a polished titanium alloy rounded frame, a small triple-camera deco, under-display Face ID, a single punch-hole front camera, and two body colors (black and white).
Here, what I mean by “all-glass” I prefer to interpret as visually all-glass, rather than the entire phone truly removing its metal load-bearing structure. Glass extends continuously to the front, back, and edges, combined with a rounded frame and more hidden sensors, allowing the metal structure to recede from being a primary visual element to merely a structural one. This design is both more realistic than a truly all-glass body and more aligned with the significance of an anniversary product serving as the design prototype for a new generation of iPhone.
Standard Model
iPhone 20?21?
The same visual prototype as the flagship, dual-sided 2.5D glass, aluminum alloy rounded frame, dual cameras, a shortened pill-shaped punch-hole display, and multi-color body options. However, it’s highly likely that the new design language of the 20th-anniversary flagship will only trickle down to the standard model in its next generation.
This can be analogized to the iPhone X back then. What’s truly important isn’t how many anniversary models are ultimately sold, but whether it takes on the role of the design prototype for the next generation of mainstream iPhones. If, like the X, it first establishes a new front-face form, bezel logic, and overall design language, and then gradually trickles these down, its relationship with the Pro would no longer be simply “a higher-tier flagship,” but rather closer to two different high-end products pursuing different directions.
Entry-Level Model
iPhone 20e?
An entry-level model continuing the design prototype of the previous generation, with flat edges, referencing the 17e, and the notch replaced by a long pill-shaped punch-hole.
Professional Model
iPhone 19 Pro/iPhone 19 Pro Max? iPhone Pro?
A professional mobile imaging product line, possibly converging to a single size, as smaller sizes can restrict design. The product definition would continue from the 18 Pro, allowing for extravagant camera system specifications.
Within this point, I believe the greatest uncertainty is whether the “Pro will ultimately converge to a single size.” Professional imaging and sustained performance naturally benefit from larger device volumes, but there’s also a stable demand for small-sized high-performance flagships, so Apple could absolutely maintain two sizes. Compared to specific dimensions, my more certain judgment is that the Pro’s product definition will become increasingly clear: it will no longer need to simultaneously fulfill the role of “the most beautiful iPhone,” and can instead dedicate more space to cooling, battery, and imaging systems.
Foldable Model
iPhone Fold? Ultra? Duo?
A cross-category product line combining a phone and a tablet.
If such a product system truly materializes, it would no longer be the past linear progression from standard model to Pro Max, where features were simply added. Instead, several different product goals would coexist: the standard model would cater to the most mainstream iPhone experience, the Pro would handle professional imaging and performance, the Fold would introduce new form factors, the design flagship would focus on industrial design and the next-generation iPhone prototype, and the entry-level model would continue to leverage mature platforms to lower the barrier to entry. Prices would, of course, still vary, but price would no longer define the entire relationship between these products.
Therefore, what this prediction truly needs to be validated in a few years is not whether “the 20th-anniversary model is called XX or Ultra,” nor whether I guessed correctly about curved glass, punch-holes, and colors. Rather, it’s about more fundamental product directions: Does the Air signify that Apple is starting to let different iPhones pursue different ultimate goals? Will the Pro, after the 17 Pro, become increasingly specialized, shifting from a comprehensive flagship that balanced performance and luxurious feel to a professional device truly centered on performance and imaging? And will the 20th-anniversary model, like the iPhone X of its time, become the design prototype for the next generation of mainstream iPhones, rather than simply being a Pro refresh for a single year?
If these three points ultimately hold true, then the series of seemingly independent product changes—from the Air, to the Fold, to the 20th-anniversary model—are actually different stages of the same phenomenon: the iPhone is undergoing its third product line diversification, following those based on size and price tiers.